Days before New Hampshire primary, most Republicans would be satisfied with Trump as 2024 nominee: POLL

(WASHINGTON) — Former President Donald Trump’s convincing victory in Monday’s Iowa caucuses shows his continued strength among Republicans, and a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds once more that Trump is both viewed nationwide as the candidate whom Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would be most satisfied with as their 2024 nominee as well as the highest-rated contender across a range of other attributes.

Three out of four Republican-leaning adults say they would be very or somewhat satisfied with Trump as the GOP’s presidential nominee, compared to 64% who say the same about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 50% for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Trump’s two remaining rivals in the nominating race.

Trump’s advantage tracks closely with the findings about Republicans who were interviewed as part of a more extensive ABC News poll conducted the week before the Iowa caucuses.

And much like Iowa entrance polls that indicated Trump was able to dominate among evangelical or born-again Christian voters in the state on Monday, he maintains a sizable advantage in that group’s assessments nationally as well. According to the new ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel, 74% of evangelicals or born-again Christians are somewhat or very satisfied with Trump. He has a stronger rating on this question than both Haley and DeSantis among this group.

Trump swept the Iowa caucuses on Monday, defeating the other candidates by historic margins and winning 51% of the vote: the first decisive win of the presidential primary season that establishes a high-stakes benchmark just days before the New Hampshire primary, which takes place on Tuesday and where Haley is hoping to eat into Trump’s margin of victory in order to fuel her own campaign.

DeSantis came in second in Iowa with 21% and Haley was in third place with 19%.

Despite DeSantis’ and Haley’s insistence that their showings in Iowa prove there is appetite among the GOP for a candidate whose name is not Trump — because 49% of caucusgoers voted for someone other than him — and that either of them would be stronger in one-on-one matchups against President Joe Biden, the ABC News/Ipsos poll finds that 80% of Republican-aligned adults view Trump as the candidate with the best chance of getting elected in November. One in 10 say Haley has the best chance, while 9% say the same of DeSantis.

Trump also has a wide lead in this poll over DeSantis and Haley on a range of other attributes. Republicans and GOP leaners see him as the top-choice candidate who best represents their personal values, is the strongest leader, best understands the problems of people like them and is best qualified to serve as president.

Trump’s advantage over DeSantis and Haley on these traits is similar to the ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted just prior to the Iowa caucuses, with one exception: The perception that Trump is the candidate with the best chance of getting elected in November has strengthened since his win in Iowa.

Trump also maintains a higher favorability rating than his opponents. In the new poll, 72% have a favorable impression of him, compared to 63% for DeSantis and 49% for Haley. These numbers are similar to right before the caucuses.

The former president is largely considered the front-runner in New Hampshire’s fast approaching contest, but Haley has cut into his lead considerably since the fall. According to 538’s polling average, she currently trails Trump in the state by about 13 points, 45.6-33.1%. That is in stark contrast to early November, when Trump dominated the field, leading by about 30 points.

Part of Haley’s boost came after well-received debate performances and after a key local endorsement — in December, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu opted to support her over his friend, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. And her team has placed a big bet that independent voters in the state will rally on her behalf.

The importance of New Hampshire is reflected strongly in her campaign’s finances, with more than $26 million spent inundating the state with ads between her official campaign organization and her allied super PAC.

She’s also had an aggressive ground game, with 35 days recorded on the ground in the state and more than 50 events with voters, according to an ABC News analysis of events since February.

Even still, in his speech to Iowans on Monday evening, Trump made it clear he believes that GOP voters’ devotion in New Hampshire is strong enough to maintain his lead.

“So it’s now off to New Hampshire, a great place … they’re embarrassed by what’s going on. Our country is laughed at all over the world and laughing at us,” he said. “And they want our country to come back.”

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted using the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® January 16-17, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,480 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, with an oversample of born-again Christians weighted to their correct proportion in the population. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2.8 points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls. See the poll’s topline results and details on the methodology here.

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