Weather: Mobile

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to continue strengthening through Friday morning as it moves northeast into the central Gulf. The hurricane will then turn northward and accelerate toward the north central Gulf Coast. Some weakening of the peak winds is possible just prior to landfall. However, Isaias is expected to still be a dangerous hurricane at landfall Friday night. It is too early to pinpoint the landfall location, but it is expected across either coastal Alabama or the western Florida Panhandle. It is important not to focus just on the center as the wind field will expand by landfall, resulting in the potential for significant wind impacts and a life threatening storm surge along and to the east of where the hurricane makes landfall.

WIND: LATEST LOCAL FORECAST

Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Friday afternoon until early Saturday morning

WIND: THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY

The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or 2 hurricane force. PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind damage. ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

WIND: POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Large areas with power and communications outages.

STORM SURGE: LATEST LOCAL FORECAST

-threatening storm surge possible Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-6 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas Window of concern: through Saturday morning

STORM SURGE: THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY

The storm surge threat has decreased from the previous assessment. PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 3 feet above ground. PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should soon be brought to completion before conditions become unsafe. ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives.

STORM SURGE: POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Areas of inundation affecting locations such as from the Dog River up through the Mobile River and tributaries, including downtown Mobile. Damage to several buildings. Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low spots. The US 90 Causeway will experience significant flooding. Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages.

FLOODING RAIN: LATEST LOCAL FORECAST

Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts

FLOODING RAIN: THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY

The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

FLOODING RAIN: POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

TORNADO: LATEST LOCAL FORECAST

Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

TORNADO: THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY

The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur. PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation. ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

TORNADO: POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

Precautionary

Stay weather aware and be ready to take action if Flash Flood Warnings are issued, particularly wireless emergency alert Flash Flood Warnings for considerable flooding.

Locations

WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.

Info1

WHERE...Portions of Alabama, including the following areas, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, Monroe, Washington and Wilcox and northwest Florida, including the following areas, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal and Santa Rosa Inland.

Info2

WHEN...From this afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

Info3

IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.

Info4

ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Hurricane Isaias will move onshore on the northern Gulf coast Friday evening, with bands of rain ahead of the storm moving onshore Friday afternoon. From Friday through the early Saturday, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across the region. Localized totals of 10 to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and close to the center track of the storm. Flash and urban flooding is likely across the region, with considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. River flooding is also expected, some of which could be significant.

Location

WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

Info1

WHERE...Bayou Sara at Saraland.

Info2

WHEN...From Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon.

Info3

IMPACTS...At 5.0 feet, street flooding east of the railroad becomes widespread.

Info4

ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 1.6 feet. - Forecast...The river will oscillate around flood stage with a maximum value of 5.1 feet Saturday evening. - Flood stage is 4.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 5.2