Weather: Mobile

Tropical Storm Isaias has strengthened to near hurricane strength and is forecast to become a hurricane soon. Isaias is moving to the east-northeast and will gradually turn northward through Friday, continuing to strengthen in the process. Isaias is expected to be a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf coast Friday night. As Isaias approaches the coast, the wind field will expand with the potential for significant wind impacts and a life threatening storm surge, especially along and to the east of where Isaias makes landfall. There still remains uncertainty with the eventual speed and track of Isaias, so everyone should continue to closely monitor the latest forecast.

WIND: LATEST LOCAL FORECAST

Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

WIND: THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY

The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or 2 hurricane force. PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be rigorously underway. Prepare for considerable wind damage. ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous.

WIND: POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks. Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Large areas with power and communications outages.

STORM SURGE: LATEST LOCAL FORECAST

-threatening storm surge possible Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 4-7 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas Window of concern: Friday morning until Saturday morning

STORM SURGE: THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY

The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 6 feet above ground. PREPARE: Evacuation efforts should soon be brought to completion before driving conditions become unsafe. ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or needlessly risk lives.

STORM SURGE: POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Large areas of deep inundation affecting areas such as from the Dog River up through the Mobile River and tributaries, including downtown Mobile. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded, including the US 90 Causeway. Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

FLOODING RAIN: LATEST LOCAL FORECAST

Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts

FLOODING RAIN: THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY

The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

FLOODING RAIN: POTENTIAL IMPACTS

Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

TORNADO: LATEST LOCAL FORECAST

Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

TORNADO: THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY

The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.

TORNADO: POTENTIAL IMPACTS

The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.